New Extremes of Humanitarian Crises Undermine International Law: Insight from the IRC’s Emergency Watchlist
By: Skylar Blumenauer
Every year, the International Rescue Commission (IRC) publishes an Emergency Watchlist report that assesses the twenty countries at greatest risk of new or continued humanitarian deterioration. The first ten, ranked from the most to least devastating impacts, include Sudan, the occupied Palestinian territory, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Myanmar, Mali, Somalia, Niger, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The latter ten are not ranked, but they still are home to devastating humanitarian emergencies. In alphabetical order, the last half of the countries from the Watchlist include Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Chad, Ecuador, Haiti, Lebanon, Nigeria, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen. In addition to predicting the countries with the worst deterioration, the IRC analyzes the causes and effects of these humanitarian crises and recommends reparation efforts. In doing so, the Watchlist reveals that the new extremes of humanitarian crises undermine the ability of international law to limit the effects of armed conflicts.
The Extremes of the Watchlist’s Humanitarian Crises
One of IRC’s major findings is that armed conflict is becoming more frequent in countries that are vulnerable to climate change. Sixteen countries globally have armed conflicts that intersect with climate crises, and fourteen of these countries are on the Watchlist. The overlap will continue to grow as increasing numbers of conflicts erupt in climate-vulnerable countries. Heightened exposure to climate crises alone threatens lives and livelihoods—climate change can cause displacement and disrupt access to necessary resources. Countries on the Watchlist contribute the least to the global climate crisis, but are disproportionately burdened by its effects. Additionally, IRC expects Watchlist countries will experience extreme temperatures and weather in the coming year, which in turn will increase food insecurity and the chance of disease outbreaks. Climate degradation often leads to humanitarian crises, and the crises become exacerbated when armed conflicts occur simultaneously. More often than not, armed conflicts will worsen already poor climate conditions. Conflict can destroy land and render it uninhabitable through shelling and bombing. Any mass movement by refugees seeking to escape conflict will strain already scarce resources.
Weak state governance and legitimacy are some of the leading factors of conflicts and humanitarian crises. Weak governance allows non-state armed groups to gain power, influence, and control. The number of armed groups in Watchlist countries continues to exponentially increase, worsening humanitarian conditions by creating new conflicts and intensifying existing ones. The rising influence of armed groups creates longer-lasting conflicts, complicates mediation efforts, and contributes to civilian violence. Additionally, leadership transitions that are violent and unconstitutional increase the risk of a crisis and decrease aid and protection programs. Matters are exacerbated when regional or global powers intervene. External intervention can drive and intensify conflict, even if mediation efforts are deployed. Of the fifteen countries that experienced internationalized conflicts in 2022, eleven are on the Emergency Watchlist. Civilians are often caught in the middle of states, non-state armed groups, and international actors. As these actors complicate efforts to negotiate ends to conflicts and wars, there is a resulting increase in harm and violence towards civilians.
International Humanitarian Law (IHL) regulates the conduct of war and seeks to limit its effects. In conflicts, IHL requires warring parties to take certain actions to mitigate the impacts on civilians and civilian infrastructure. However, the protections of international law are not being deployed consistently or reliably in Watchlist countries. The failure of parties to distinguish military targets, respect protections for hospitals and civilians, and uphold the responsibility to allow humanitarian access resulted in a record-high number of civilians killed in state-based conflict in 2022. As warring parties disregard IHL and destroy the systems that communities rely on, conflicts and their effects become longer-lasting. Conditions are again exacerbated as some international law entities are inhibited by internal mechanisms from providing accountability or aid, such as the United Nations Security Council’s veto policy. Moreover, international law treaties may require or expect uninvolved states to intervene in or provide assistance to the ongoing conflict. The global increase in public debt, however, prevents some governments from investing in services and systems that could prevent and address humanitarian crises arising from armed conflict and climate change. Additionally, the United States and European countries are not meeting the benchmark for hosting refugees and displaced people. They host 99% of displaced Ukrainians, but only 8% of all non-Ukranian refugees and displaced people. International law explicitly protects refugees’ right to seek and enjoy asylum from persecution, but Western countries are enforcing harsh border and asylum rules. Other countries, such as Egypt, are influenced to follow the lead of the West and implement their own harsh policies, despite its violation of the 1951 Refugee Convention.
The Future of International Law
IRC names a variety of actions that should be taken to address the unprecedented global humanitarian crises. Recommended actions include investing in climate adaptation and resilience action, tackling the economic drivers of rising humanitarian needs, increasing aid, mitigating the debt crisis, and protecting forcibly displaced citizens. Additionally, IRC recommends stemming impunity and reinforcing IHL by reexamining its mechanisms. By authorizing the same actions that the UN’s General Assembly and the Human Rights Council took in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, states can act quickly to investigate and prosecute violations of international law. If the UN supports the France-Mexico declaration to suspend the use of the veto in the Security Council in cases of mass atrocity, greater action can be directed to war crimes. Additionally, the UN can create various mechanisms that solely focus on collecting and analyzing evidence of violations of IHL. It is important that violations of international law are not normalized—any step taken to reduce the impact of humanitarian crises will be insufficient if every offender is not held accountable. If the trend of inconsistent accountability continues, international law will likely lose legitimacy and power, which, in turn, will exacerbate the brutality and inhumanity of crimes that are committed in international conflicts.
As the new extremes of humanitarian crises continue to undermine international law, states and nonstate actors must take the necessary steps to strengthen international law’s mechanisms of accountability—if not, conflicts will continue to deteriorate humanitarian conditions at an unprecedented, exponential rate. Faith in the international legal system must be restored.
Sources:
https://www.rescue.org/report/glance-2024-emergency-watchlist
Image Source:
https://www.rescue.org/article/how-are-global-systems-failing-behind-years-emergency-watchlist